Tradingsuccess
SIStation
Tmtdimension
T3bsystem
Trackthetrend
That day was a lazy Sunday where I couldn’t decide if I should go back to work half-day or not (for fun haha). In the end the weather decided for me as it drizzle in the morning. When I finally moved my butt out of the house, I was late for the talk “Year-End Outlook and Perspective Beyond”. Hmm I think it would have been a good talk especially since it is super crowded in that room. Actually out of the 3.5 talks I went, 3 were super crowded. And the crowd composites of youngsters (err maybe younger than me or my age?) to elderly who I believed are long time players. Then there were people whom might not understand English but came to see still. Some reminds me of my mum haha... Actually a lot of trading information, I learnt from my mum too. Just that I am a low risk taker so I prefer to be more careful before I really venture into this area.
The first talk was on “So You Want To Get Rich? The Path To Consistent Profitability” by Ray Barros. He is a fund manager and an educator and his public speaking is excellent. Haha. I may not like public speaking and may have forgotten most of the pointers I learnt but I still like to observe people giving speeches. He has all the elements of trying to engage the audience and keeping them awake. Maybe I was standing that’s why I’m awake bah.
He mentioned that to succeed you need 60% of winning psychology and 30% of effective money management and 10% of a plan with the edge. And all 3 elements must exist for the formula to work.
He has an interesting formula:
Expected Return Per Trade
(AVG$Win x WinRate)–(AVG$Loss x Loss Rate)
where
AVG$WIN = $won/Total # Winning Trades
Win Rate = # Winning Trades/Total # Trades
AVG$Loss = $lost/Total # Losing Trades
Loss Rate = # Losing Trades/Total # Trades
Based on the formula, I think the win rate and loss rate is quite crucial. Did not really get the idea but I remember he said that even if someone gives you a money making formula that is 99% efficient, you might still lose a lot because of the 1% if the formula is negative. Sighz I think I need to digest further.
He asked us to think about some sports professional e.g. Tiger Wood and an amount of money where we will feel heart pain if we lose it. Using that amount as a bet to try to beat Tiger Wood in a game of golf, he asked how many of us will take on that bet. Then he asked why we hesitated when we have already done that while speculating stocks. We were playing a game with those big players already. The market is a profitability game and that in this one game/trade, you have as much chance to win the big players. However if you prolong the game further, then your probability of winning will start to diminish. Thought provoking!
He mention something about RSI trend identification which I am totally lost about although by the end of the day, I realised he and Keane Lee both focus a lot on trend
• UPTREND: If the RSI fluctuates between 80 (75) and 40 (35)
• DOWNTREND: If the RSI fluctuates between 60 (65) and (25) 20 we have a downtrend.
• SW: If the RSI fluctuates between 80 (75) & 20 (25)
By the way, his slides can be obtained here.
The second talk I went was on “Trade Smarter with CFDs” by Geoffrey Sawyer from CMC Markets Singapore P/L. Halfway through, I thought maybe CFD is not for me as it is on short-term investments and left. Hmm kinda regret now because I might change my mind and learn more about CFD. Still thinking..
The third talk was given by Lorraine Tan regarding “Regional Market Outlook”. She mentioned that 4th quarter should be better than the 3rd quarter. However they are still waiting for news like Taiwan banks and Japan banks which have not disclose what their impact is with regards to the USA event.
The last talk was also an engaging talk titled “How To Create A Consistent Money-Making System in the Singapore Stock Market” by Keane Lee. What I like in this talk is his belief that Technology should be harnessed for this area too. He has a system called T3B where he has his own formula to help him track the trend. There are many ways to speculate stocks
1. Fundamental Traders who trade stocks even before they are released
2. Indicators
3. Trend followers
He had also mentioned that contra players never have a good ending in the long run. Haha. He is actually quite a humorous speaker especially his intonation. Anyway he said that Singapore stocks are not meant for long term investment generally and one should hold it for at most 4++ months only. Gosh, I wonder how many people will react to that statement. Imagine my colleagues, SIA employees, Keppel etc. They will say they keep their shares till now and are finally seeing the huge profit. But he believed that with that long wait, he would have earn more by compounding.
He had also advised that one must always try to lock profit by cutting loss or taking profit. Most people are quick to buy but not quick to sell. And by using online trading, one would actually save a lot of time. What I like about his idea is that if (a big IF in my case) you predict the trend correctly, you can actually plan to buy/sell the night before. Then in the daytime, you do not need to monitor the stocks at all which is exactly what he does. He never checks stocks in the daytime because he feels that will disrupt his emotions and one should never speculate the market with emotion as it would react too violently.
Oh ya he use Metastock but he pluck in his own formulas to do the trend forecasting for him. When he ran that program, it reminds me of my Neural Network doing its classification. Interesting!
Anyway I took this picture for fun... I was bored and wanted to make my blog more "colourful" instead of being too wordy...
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